Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 20.274787 23.651398 27.738884 33.156788 40.319846 49.732182 63.531005
2025-01-12 15.389562 18.977616 23.726522 30.739883 41.364210 57.925870 88.470640
2025-01-19 12.789863 16.288209 21.171231 28.890529 41.707475 64.366006 115.007454
2025-01-26 12.628288 16.766753 22.964638 33.736166 54.237885 98.795285 243.348909
2025-02-02 11.908916 16.268806 23.128279 35.910802 63.015409 133.755429 482.058905
2025-02-09 10.641161 14.738541 21.342749 34.091897 62.722765 145.785943 696.928350
2025-02-16 10.122738 14.307111 21.298404 35.542738 70.598301 192.787736 1805.600612
2025-02-23 9.490900 13.608114 20.667228 35.634728 75.178575 236.451624 5671.180708
2025-03-02 8.921401 12.947255 20.003116 35.491740 79.125856 287.051504 54124.489604
2025-03-09 8.504551 12.499944 19.667312 36.002454 85.471055 371.667273 NaN
2025-03-16 7.905187 11.682709 18.528011 34.389462 84.028324 400.150030 NaN
2025-03-23 7.534471 11.236257 18.058220 34.313848 88.170117 498.970607 NaN
2025-03-30 7.003812 10.494094 16.982985 32.674934 86.293809 541.144002 NaN
2025-04-06 6.451451 9.679639 15.696577 30.310068 80.701362 522.378385 NaN
2025-04-13 6.002752 9.024645 14.678453 28.498577 76.811180 522.107096 NaN
2025-04-20 6.174003 9.504431 16.021129 33.242584 104.989618 1607.890221 NaN
2025-04-27 6.094420 9.509863 16.369232 35.369187 124.187084 4569.113491 NaN
2025-05-04 5.743645 8.974749 15.481058 33.590558 119.294430 4974.400346 NaN
2025-05-11 5.637395 8.901894 15.611300 35.009354 136.443323 26556.061163 NaN
2025-05-18 5.452967 8.663845 15.343083 35.099291 145.100060 460184.558264 NaN
2025-05-25 5.268576 8.414145 15.024240 34.959494 152.276593 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 5.133534 8.253664 14.897875 35.458783 166.047842 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 4.894196 7.871786 14.217143 33.881603 159.325089 NaN NaN